Cobb County business owners can expect a stable economic backdrop through early 2027, with GDP growth holding near 2% and no recession on the horizon, according to Kennesaw State University economist Roger Tutterow.

Tutterow delivered his forecast at the Cobb Chamber of Commerce's Marquee Monday luncheon on Monday, July 13, at the Coca-Cola Roxy at The Battery Atlanta. The monthly series draws more than 300 business professionals from across the county, including members of the chamber's East Cobb Area Council.

Tutterow holds the Henssler Financial Endowed Chair and directs the Econometric Center at KSU's Coles College of Business. He has advised multiple Georgia governors on economic policy.

"A pretty decent quarter here in the first quarter of the year, and so we're going to have GDP growth close to 2%, probably about 1.7, 1.8 for 2026," Tutterow said. "So we celebrate that a broad economy is still expanding in terms of production."

That roughly 2% pace has held for three consecutive years, Tutterow said, and he projects it will continue through 2026 and into early 2027. He expects the rate of growth to slow somewhat in coming months.

Tariff disruption in the rearview

Tutterow cautioned that headline GDP numbers can mislead. In the first quarter of 2025, GDP fell 0.6% after businesses rushed imports ahead of expected tariff increases. The pattern reversed sharply: GDP rose 3.8% in the second quarter of 2025 and 4.4% in the third quarter as net exports rebounded.

The quarterly swings illustrate how trade policy can distort short-term growth figures, Tutterow said, even when the broader economy remains on solid footing.

Consumer confidence lagging

One wrinkle: consumer confidence hasn't kept pace with the data. Among independent voters, confidence has trended downward since 2020, even as production and employment figures remain positive, Tutterow said.

"One of the sources of frustration when we look at the economy is that confidence has not come back and is not performing at a level consistent with what we're seeing in so many other data series," he told the July 13 audience.

Leading economic indicators are still slightly declining, Tutterow said, but not broadly enough to signal a recession.

Data centers reshaping commercial real estate

Tutterow also flagged a shift in commercial construction. Office construction spending appears to be rising, but the numbers are skewed by data center projects. More construction dollars are flowing into data center-associated projects than into traditional office buildings, he said, calling data centers "a heaven-sent gift" for the real estate sector to offset softness in traditional office space.

What's next

The next Cobb Chamber Marquee Monday luncheon is scheduled for Monday, August 10, at the Coca-Cola Roxy, with doors opening at 11:15 a.m. and the program beginning at noon.